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Biology / Ecology

Quantifying the success of prey crypsis, aposematism, and evasiveness in avoiding predator attack

Author names withheld — follow the preprint link below for the original work and its full attribution.

Preprint license: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Pre-generated example — not run live. PsiPi had no role in this paper's real review or outcome; author names and the source abstract are withheld, and this shows only what our AI pipeline says about the publicly posted preprint linked above.

Editorial screening (would proceed)

Dear Authors, thank you for submitting your work to Ecology. This manuscript presents a compelling comparative analysis of three primary antipredator strategies—crypsis, aposematism, and evasiveness—within a wild predator-prey system, which aligns well with the journal's focus on fundamental ecological interactions. By quantifying effectiveness across the entire predation sequence and accounting for predator life stage and phylogeny, the study offers a nuanced perspective on the maintenance of defensive diversity in tropical ecosystems. While this screening assessment was performed by a language model and does not constitute a final editorial decision, your manuscript clears the initial bar for further evaluation and will now proceed to full peer review. Sincerely, Handling Editor, PsiPi.

Editor's synthesis & decision

Major Revision
Dear Authors, Thank you for submitting your work on antipredator strategies in tropical butterfly-bird interactions. The reviewers and I recognize the significant logistical effort involved in conducting these aviary experiments with wild-caught predators, and we agree that your multi-stage assessment of the predation sequence provides a valuable empirical contribution to behavioral ecology. The findings regarding the influence of predator life stage on learned avoidance are particularly compelling and well-suited to the scope of your target journal. However, the manuscript currently contains critical technical and reporting deficiencies that must be addressed before it can be considered for publication. Reviewer 3 highlighted that several key mathematical and statistical equations are corrupted or missing, rendering the analysis impossible to verify. Additionally, there are significant concerns regarding the lack of transparency in your data sharing and the absence of inter-rater reliability metrics for the behavioral scoring performed by student assistants. Addressing these reproducibility issues is mandatory for this venue. Furthermore, while the reviewers find your core data robust, they have identified areas where your interpretations require more nuance. Reviewer 1 and Reviewer 2 both noted that your claim of 'similar' mortality rates across prey types may obscure important differences in the selective pressures acting on each group. You should reframe these discussions to emphasize the distinct pathways to survival rather than focusing solely on absolute mortality. Finally, please address the inconsistencies in your figures, particularly the handling of non-attacking trials in Figure 3 and the need for normalized proportions in Figure 2. These reviews and this synthesis were generated by language models and do not constitute real peer review or an editorial decision with any standing. We look forward to seeing a revised version that addresses these points. Sincerely, Chief Editor, PsiPi

Revision requests

  • Restore all missing or corrupted mathematical and statistical equations (1, 2a, 2b, 3) using clear, standard notation.
  • Deposit all raw trial-by-trial data, taxonomic metadata, and analysis scripts into a public repository like Zenodo or Dryad and update the data availability statement accordingly.
  • Provide a detailed methodological report on observer training and inter-rater reliability (e.g., Cohen's kappa) for the behavioral video scoring.
  • Reframe the discussion of mortality rates to explicitly distinguish between absolute mortality and the distinct selective pressures (pathways to survival) observed for each prey type.
  • Clarify the data handling in Figure 3, ensuring the figure caption and the underlying data subset (including or excluding non-attacking trials) are logically consistent and clearly labeled.

Where this could be published

At its current quality

Solid specialist behavioral and evolutionary ecology journals

  • Behavioral Ecology
  • Journal of Animal Ecology
  • Ethology

Then you could realistically aim for

Highly regarded broad-interest ecological journals

  • Ecology
  • American Naturalist
  • Proceedings of the Royal Society B

The current manuscript sits comfortably within solid specialist journals, but reaching a broader-interest venue requires a more rigorous demonstration of reproducibility and a more sophisticated synthesis of the evolutionary implications of your findings. The single most important improvement is the full disclosure of data and the correction of the statistical reporting. Please note that this is guidance, not a guarantee, and you must verify the novelty of your specific claims against a live literature search.

edited by model: gemini-flash-lite-latest

Reviewer comments — reproduced in full, unabridged

Reviewer 1

gemini-flash-lite-latest

This study investigates the effectiveness of three distinct antipredator strategies—crypsis, aposematism, and evasiveness—in wild tropical butterfly-bird interactions using aviary experiments. The authors quantify outcomes across the predation sequence, from encounter to consumption, and find that while each strategy operates effectively at different stages, overall mortality rates remain similar across prey types. A key finding is the significant influence of predator life stage (immature vs. adult) on defensive efficacy, with immature birds showing less learned avoidance of aposematic signals. The work is well-executed, technically sound, and provides a valuable empirical contribution to the study of predator-prey dynamics in complex tropical ecosystems. It is a solid specialist study that fits well within the scope of the target journal.

Strengths

  • The use of wild-caught birds and natural prey species in a controlled aviary setting provides high ecological realism compared to laboratory-based models.
  • The systematic quantification of the entire predation sequence (encounter, detection, attack, subjugation) allows for a nuanced dissection of how different defenses function.
  • The inclusion of predator life stage as a variable provides important insights into the role of learning and experience in maintaining the diversity of prey defenses.

Weaknesses

  • The experimental design involves a relatively small and uneven sample size across habitats and seasons, which limits the robustness of some conclusions.
  • The use of a closed aviary environment may artificially inflate attack rates on evasive species compared to natural conditions, as noted by the authors.
  • The statistical treatment of the 'capture avoidance' and 'survival' stages relies on models that show substantial overlap in performance, making some interpretations speculative.

Detailed comments

The authors state that "spatially, Euptychiines preferred the ground, reducing their encounter probability," which is a central claim regarding the efficacy of crypsis. However, the study does not fully account for whether this spatial preference is an inherent property of the prey or a response to the aviary structure. It would strengthen the manuscript to clarify if these butterflies exhibit similar vertical stratification in the wild, as the current results could be an artifact of the aviary's dimensions (4m height).

Regarding the influence of predator experience, the authors note that "immature birds were more likely to attack Heliconius, possibly reflecting a lack of learned avoidance." This is a compelling interpretation, but the manuscript lacks a detailed breakdown of the 'immature' category. Given that this category likely spans a wide range of developmental stages, it would be beneficial to discuss whether the observed patterns are consistent across this spectrum or if they are driven by a subset of very young, inexperienced individuals. Providing more detail on the criteria used to classify 'immature' beyond "plumage and commissure colour" would help assess the reliability of this grouping.

Comments on figures

  • Figure 2: The stacked bar charts show the number of experiments, but the total number of experiments varies significantly between the panels (e.g., ~80 for immatures vs. ~40 for adults). This makes direct visual comparison of the proportions of outcomes difficult. The authors should consider presenting these data as proportions (percentages) to facilitate a clearer comparison of behavioral trends between age groups.
  • Figure 3b: The plot shows a massive discrepancy in the number of instances for Spicauda (107) compared to Euptychiina (26) and Heliconius (37). While the text discusses this as evidence of high attack rates, the figure caption does not clarify if these are absolute counts or normalized by the number of successful encounters. If these are raw counts, they are heavily influenced by the total number of experiments performed for each species, which may not be equal. Please clarify if these counts are normalized.

Referee report rubric — reproduced exactly as submitted

Quality of experimental data, technical rigorTop 25%
Significance to researchers in this and related fieldsTop 50%
Broad interest to other researchersTop 50%
NoveltyModerate
Suitable for media coverage or a "First Reactions" piece?No
Recommendationminor revision
Reviewer's self-reported confidence4/5

Reviewer 2

gemini-3.1-flash-lite

This manuscript presents a field-based aviary study in Peru investigating the effectiveness of three distinct antipredator strategies—crypsis, aposematism, and evasiveness—across the stages of the predation sequence. By recording interactions between wild insectivorous birds and three butterfly taxa, the authors provide a valuable, multi-stage assessment of how different defenses function in a tropical ecosystem. The study highlights the critical role of predator life stage (immature vs. adult) in shaping the efficacy of these defenses, particularly noting that immature birds show less learned avoidance of aposematic signals. While the experimental design is robust and the statistical approach is well-suited to the data, the interpretation of mortality rates as 'similar' across prey types warrants more nuanced discussion given the observed differences in predator behavior. Overall, this is a solid contribution to the field of behavioral ecology, providing empirical support for the theoretical expectation that diverse defensive strategies can coexist under varied predation pressures.

Strengths

  • The study employs a rare and logistically challenging field-based aviary approach with wild predators, which is significantly more ecologically relevant than laboratory-based experiments using naive captive-bred birds.
  • The systematic decomposition of the predation sequence (encounter, detection, identification, attack, subjugation) allows for a granular analysis of where specific defenses are most effective.
  • The inclusion of predator life stage (immature vs. adult) as a key variable provides important insights into the role of learning in the maintenance of defensive polymorphisms.
  • The use of likelihood-based model selection (AICc) is an appropriate and rigorous method for comparing the relative support for different hypotheses regarding defense effectiveness.

Weaknesses

  • The interpretation of 'similar' mortality rates is potentially misleading; while the absolute mortality might be comparable, the pathways to survival differ substantially, and the authors should avoid downplaying these mechanistic differences.
  • The study acknowledges that 'due to time and logistics constraints, we were not able to carry out experiments in the urban environment during the dry season,' which introduces a confounding factor between habitat and season that limits the generality of the conclusions.
  • The discussion regarding the 'similar mortality rates' could be strengthened by explicitly addressing how the artificial constraints of the aviary (e.g., limited space for escape) might have artificially inflated mortality for the evasive Spicauda species compared to natural conditions.
  • The manuscript lacks a clear justification for why specific species were chosen as representatives for each defense strategy, beyond general morphological and behavioral similarities, which could be better supported by citing specific prior studies on their palatability or flight performance.

Detailed comments

The authors state that 'mortality rates among prey types were largely similar,' and they use this to argue for the adaptive value of diverse defenses. However, in Figure 2, the stacked bar charts show that the 'Subjugated' category (the darkest segment) is quite small for all groups, but the composition of the preceding stages (e.g., 'Sight rejected' vs 'Attacked but not caught') varies significantly. I suggest the authors reframe this claim to emphasize that while *total* mortality is similar, the *selective pressures* acting on these prey are distinct. For instance, Spicauda faces high attack rates but survives through evasion, whereas Heliconius survives through identification and rejection. Characterizing these as 'similar' risks obscuring the very evolutionary mechanisms the paper aims to illuminate.

Regarding the influence of predator age, the authors note that 'immature birds were more likely to attack Heliconius, possibly reflecting a lack of learned avoidance.' This is a compelling finding. However, the manuscript would benefit from a more detailed discussion on the potential for 'social learning' or 'cultural transmission' in the wild bird populations. Since the birds were kept in captivity for up to 30 hours, is there any evidence or observation of whether immature birds might have been influenced by the presence or behavior of other birds in the aviary, or is the behavior strictly considered individual? Quoting the text: 'Immature birds were more likely to attack Heliconius, possibly reflecting a lack of learned avoidance for aposematic signals.' To strengthen this, the authors should clarify if they observed any inter-individual interactions that could confound the 'naivety' assumption.

Comments on figures

  • Figure 2 (a, b, c): The stacked bar charts are excellent for visualizing the progression of the predation sequence. However, in panel (c), the 'Subjugated' (darkest) category appears quite small across all three groups. Could the authors provide the raw counts or percentages for these specific segments in the text to clarify if the 'similar mortality' claim is statistically supported by the small number of observed kills? Additionally, ensure that the y-axis 'Number of experiments' is consistent with the total valid experiments (216) mentioned in the Results.
  • Figure 3 (a): The box plots show the distribution of the 'Co-occurrence [Co]' index. The caption states 'Compact letters denote significant differences,' but it is unclear if the whiskers represent standard deviation, standard error, or the full range of the data. Please clarify this in the figure legend. Furthermore, the significant difference between Euptychiina and the other two groups is clear, but the overlap in the interquartile ranges for Heliconius and Spicauda suggests that their spatial behavior in the aviary is quite similar—does this similarity in space use affect the interpretation of their different attack rates?

Referee report rubric — reproduced exactly as submitted

Quality of experimental data, technical rigorTop 25%
Significance to researchers in this and related fieldsTop 25%
Broad interest to other researchersTop 50%
NoveltyModerate
Suitable for media coverage or a "First Reactions" piece?No
Recommendationminor revision
Reviewer's self-reported confidence4/5

Reviewer 3

gemini-flash-latest

This manuscript presents an ambitious and valuable field study conducted in Peru, investigating how wild avian predators interact with three distinct prey defense strategies—crypsis, aposematism, and evasiveness—across different stages of the predation sequence. By using a large sample of wild-caught insectivorous birds in controlled aviary trials, the authors successfully capture behavioral transitions from detection to consumption. The findings highlight the importance of predator age and family in shaping defense efficacy, which is a highly relevant contribution to evolutionary ecology. However, from a reproducibility and open-science perspective, the manuscript suffers from several critical reporting deficiencies. Most notably, multiple mathematical and statistical equations are completely missing or corrupted in the text, the raw data and analysis scripts are not yet publicly accessible, and the methodology lacks standard controls for inter-observer scoring reliability.

Strengths

  • A highly impressive experimental effort involving 216 valid trials with wild-caught birds from 41 species and 13 families, providing strong ecological realism.
  • The use of a standardized, two-camera video setup to record and reconstruct the fine-scale spatial and temporal dynamics of predator-prey interactions.
  • A clear conceptual framework that breaks down antipredator defenses into sequential stages (encounter, detection, attack, subjugation, consumption) rather than treating predation as a binary outcome.

Weaknesses

  • Critical mathematical and statistical equations (Equations 1, 2a, 2b, and 3) are completely missing or corrupted in the text, leaving blank spaces or fragmented characters.
  • The data sharing policy relies on an outdated 'upon request' model, which does not comply with modern open-science standards for leading specialist journals.
  • There is no reporting of inter-rater reliability or observer blinding protocols for the four student assistants who scored approximately 300 hours of behavioral video.
  • Taxonomic resolution is pooled or incomplete for several trials, making it difficult to reconstruct the exact species-level interactions.

Detailed comments

The most urgent technical issue preventing any attempt at independent replication is that the mathematical formulations are entirely missing or corrupted in the text. For example, in the description of the co-occurrence index on line 160, the text simply reads '(1)' followed by a blank space, and then continues on line 161: 'Where, the first term is the proportion of experimental time...'. Similarly, the generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) on lines 174 and 176 are presented as '(2a) 1 _' and '(2b) 1 _' with no actual equations. Finally, the log-likelihood equation on line 198 is corrupted as '(3) ∑ 1 1'. Without the exact mathematical structures of these models and indices, it is impossible for peer reviewers or future researchers to verify, let alone reproduce, the statistical findings. The authors must carefully re-render these equations using standard LaTeX or high-resolution embedded symbols.

To align with the open-science standards of a solid specialist journal like Ecology, the authors must revise their data availability statement. Currently, the manuscript states: 'The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request and will be archived on Zenodo after acceptance' (lines 17-18). In modern ecological research, 'available upon request' is highly discouraged as it severely limits transparency and reproducibility. The authors should deposit their fully curated, trial-by-trial raw scoring data, taxonomic metadata, and R analysis scripts (including the spreadsheet-based log-likelihood calculations mentioned on line 239) into Zenodo or Dryad now, providing a private, anonymous reviewer access link for this evaluation phase, which will automatically transition to a public DOI upon publication.

The manuscript lacks essential methodological details regarding the standardization and reliability of the video analysis. The authors note: 'We thank students who helped processing nearly 300 hours of video material: Tereza Látalová, Sara Turková...' (lines 470-471). When multiple observers score subjective behavioral metrics—such as determining whether a bird is '~10 cm close' (line 182) or identifying 'active attacking behaviour' (line 184)—there is a high risk of systematic observer bias. To ensure the reproducibility of these behavioral classifications, the authors must specify: (1) whether the student observers were blind to the experimental hypotheses and prey categories, (2) how the observers were trained to standardize their scoring, and (3) a quantitative measure of inter-rater agreement (such as Cohen's kappa or an intraclass correlation coefficient) calculated from a subset of trials scored by all observers.

Comments on figures

  • In Figure 3, panel (c) contains a prominent typographical error in the y-axis label, which reads 'Minutes to frist attack' instead of 'first'. More substantively, there is an apparent logical inconsistency between the figure and the text regarding how non-attacks were handled. The text states that 'the time for the first instance of attacking behaviour (no attack, equals 60 minutes)' was determined (line 230-231). However, the caption of Figure 3 states that panel (c) shows data 'Only for birds attacking at least one butterfly.' If the plot is restricted strictly to birds that performed an attack, the violin plot for Heliconius should not show a heavy concentration of data points exactly at the 60-minute mark, as those represent non-attacking trials. If non-attacking trials were indeed included as 60 minutes, this artificially inflates the latency and violates the 'only for birds attacking' condition stated in the caption. The authors must clarify this coding discrepancy and update the figure and caption to reflect the exact data subset used.

Referee report rubric — reproduced exactly as submitted

Quality of experimental data, technical rigorTop 50%
Significance to researchers in this and related fieldsTop 25%
Broad interest to other researchersTop 50%
NoveltyModerate
Suitable for media coverage or a "First Reactions" piece?No
Recommendationmajor revision
Reviewer's self-reported confidence4/5

This document was generated by PsiPi, an AI-assisted manuscript review tool. It is not a product of real peer review, was not issued by any journal, and creates no publication record. The reviews and editorial synthesis above were written by large language models and may contain errors, omissions, or hallucinated claims — treat them as a starting point for revision, not as an authoritative expert assessment.